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Risk-free rate (risikofreier Zins)

Level 3 · Advanced
German termrisikofreier Zins
Read firstInterest rate
Deep divesBonds

The risk-free rate is the return on an investment assumed to carry no default risk — in practice, the yield on the safest government bonds available, such as German Bunds. Every other expected return in finance gets priced as this baseline plus a premium for the extra risk taken on.

Why it matters

Every investment decision implicitly compares an expected return against some safer alternative. The risk-free rate is that alternative made explicit — it's what an investor gives up by choosing a stock or a corporate bond over the closest thing to a sure repayment. It builds directly on the interest rate (Zinssatz): the risk-free rate is a specific interest rate, applied to a borrower assumed to have essentially zero chance of failing to repay — which is why default-free is the more precise name for it.

The concept also feeds forward into the equity risk premium — the extra return stock investors demand over a safe asset for taking on the risk of owning a company rather than lending to a government. Without a risk-free rate as the starting point, "extra return for extra risk" has no baseline to measure from.

Worked examples

1. Reading a risk-free rate. An illustrative risk-free rate of 2.5% per year means a 10-year German Bundesanleihe (federal government bond) held to maturity is assumed to pay 2.5% annually, with no realistic scenario in which Germany fails to repay. On €10,000 invested: €10,000 x 0.025 = €250 per year, before tax.

2. Building other returns on top of it. Riskier assets get priced as the risk-free rate plus a premium sized to the extra uncertainty. Using the same illustrative 2.5% risk-free rate as the base:

AssetRisk-free rateRisk premium (illustrative)Expected return
German Bundesanleihe (10-year)2.5%0% — this is the baseline2.5%
Investment-grade corporate bond2.5%+1% for credit risk3.5%
Diversified stock portfolio2.5%+5% (equity risk premium)7.5%

None of these figures are current market rates — they illustrate the structure, not a quote. The premium grows with the uncertainty of getting paid back in full and on time: a government with its own tax base and currency is judged less likely to default than a single company, and a company's fixed bond payment is judged more certain than a stock's variable, residual claim on profits.

In practice, no asset is perfectly risk-free, and "risk-free" describes default risk specifically — the near-zero chance the issuer fails to repay — not every risk an investor faces. Even top-rated government bonds carry inflation risk, and bonds sold before maturity carry price risk if interest rates move. In real, inflation-adjusted terms a risk-free instrument may not exist at all at certain times: when inflation runs above the nominal risk-free yield, even the safest bond locks in a loss of purchasing power. Default-free is not the same as purchasing-power-free.

Check yourself

A German Bundesanleihe offers an illustrative risk-free rate of 2.5% per year. A diversified stock portfolio's expected return is priced as this risk-free rate plus a 5-percentage-point equity risk premium. What is the stock portfolio's expected annual return, in percent?

What does "risk-free" specifically refer to in "risk-free rate"?

Which of these can still affect a "risk-free" government bond, even though it carries essentially no default risk? (Select all that apply.)

How is the expected return on a riskier asset typically constructed relative to the risk-free rate?